Sources and methods

Ocean iron fertilisation: Evidence selection and interpretation.

Field studies, natural analogues, assessments and legal sources retain their stated location, season, method and observation window.

Evidence interpretation

Observed settings and evidence boundaries.

Documented field experiments, observatory records and natural analogues connect specific HNLC regions to carbon-fate questions.

  1. 01

    Ocean setting

    The source reports physical setting, season, nutrient and iron conditions, circulation and community context.

  2. 02

    Evidence class

    Field observation, intervention experiment, natural analogue, model result and assessment have distinct evidentiary roles.

  3. 03

    Carbon question

    Biological response, air–sea exchange, particle export, carbon transfer to depth and atmospheric return pathways are distinct components.

  4. 04

    Place-specific context

    Protected-area, coastal-state, high-seas or disputed-context information can change interpretation of a result.

  5. 05

    Unresolved questions

    A study’s inference is limited by its measured time, depth, comparator and geography.

Reading a result

Six dimensions of an inference boundary.

01

Evidence type

Field observation, controlled experiment, natural analogue, model, synthesis or authoritative framework?

02

Setting and time

Region, coordinates, depth, season, dose, duration and follow-up window.

03

Measured variable

Direct observation, proxy, derived variable, inferred flux or modelled outcome.

04

Comparator

Untreated patch, historical baseline, climatology, model counterfactual or no comparator.

05

Inference boundary

Response, export, atmospheric attribution, durability, ecology, scalability and permission are distinct questions.

06

Additional evidence

Longer observation, a matched reference, deeper measurements, ecological monitoring or replication in another study.

Primary sources

Fourteen scientific and legal sources.

Primary papers, official datasets and institutional legal texts.

Source group

Regional experiments and models

Primary field studies and scenario evidence used in the three regional pathways.

Field experiment

IronEx II

Coale et al. (1996), Nature ↗

Publication / date
1996
Scientific relevance
Equatorial Pacific response and patch tracking
Access
Publisher access
Limit
Short observation window
Field experiment

SERIES

Boyd et al. (2004), Nature ↗

Publication / date
2004
Scientific relevance
Subarctic particle-export evidence
Access
Publisher access
Limit
Export is not atmospheric removal
Field experiment

EIFEX

Smetacek et al. (2012), Nature ↗

Publication / date
2012
Scientific relevance
Southern Ocean deep particle observations
Access
Publisher access
Limit
One eddy and bloom
Model study

Regional trade-offs

Yu et al. (2026), Nature ↗

Publication / date
2026
Scientific relevance
Scenario comparison and return pathways
Access
Publisher access
Limit
Model results are not field validation

Source group

Risk, carbon and measurement evidence

Primary hazard evidence, independent assessments and research-observatory guidance.

Independent assessment

Ocean-based CDR

National Academies (2022) ↗

Publication / date
2022
Scientific relevance
Carbon durability, MRV and impacts
Access
Open access
Limit
Not a project assessment
Scientific guidance

OIF observatory

Buesseler et al. (2024) ↗

Publication / date
2024
Scientific relevance
Measurement architecture
Access
Open access
Limit
Not a crediting protocol

Source group

Scientific and geographic context

Scientific context products used to explain the three ocean systems.

Review

HNLC overview

Lin & Letscher (2024) ↗

Publication / date
2024
Scientific relevance
Broad HNLC context
Access
Open access
Limit
Broad synthesis
Research data programme

GEOTRACES

GEOTRACES data products ↗

Publication / date
Accessed 2026
Scientific relevance
Trace-element context
Access
Programme access
Limit
Coverage and methods vary

Evidence boundary

Evidence boundaries.

Research findings, treaty status and local governance change over time.

Glossary

Terms with distinct scientific meanings.

Observation
A measurement tied to a stated method, location and time. It does not automatically generalise.
Model output
A result conditional on model structure, parameters, forcing and scenario; not a field measurement.
Natural analogue
A naturally occurring system that helps examine a mechanism but is not identical to a deliberate intervention.
HNLC
High-nutrient, low-chlorophyll ocean context. It is not synonymous with iron limitation at every place or time.
Carbon transfer to depth
Movement of carbon below a stated depth horizon; its storage duration depends on remineralisation, circulation and ventilation.
Permission
A legally effective authorisation or consent from the relevant actor under applicable law; not inferred from a map, treaty table or evidence page.