Risks and uncertainties

Ocean iron fertilisation: Unresolved evidence across the OIF system.

OIF questions span ecology, carbon fate, measurement, governance and operations. The relevant uncertainty is specific to a place, mechanism and observation window.

Risk pathways

Evidence and uncertainty across six parts of the system.

Ecology

Community composition, grazing, toxins, oxygen, food webs and downstream nutrient effects may vary by place and season.

Carbon accounting

Surface drawdown and one export measurement do not resolve atmospheric attribution, circulation or storage duration.

Measurement

Reference design, patch transport, observation duration and instrument limits affect what can be concluded.

Governance

Protected areas, fisheries, coastal and high-seas frameworks, and affected people and ocean users depend on place-specific analysis.

Operations

Weather, vessel time, deep instruments, recovery cruises and follow-up across seasons shape feasibility and cost.

Uncertainty

Transparent methods, measurable uncertainty and contrary evidence determine the strength of a result.